Anyone investing in the stock market wants to know as early as possible how share prices will perform. There are numerous forecasts, models and analyses designed to help with this. But how reliable are these predictions really?
The latest episode of the ‘Einfach Forschung’ podcast from Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences explores the limitations of share price forecasts and the question of why even sophisticated models cannot reliably predict actual price movements.
The episode is titled: “EF047: The stock market doesn’t know the future: Why share prices cannot be predicted”
The guest is Prof. Dr Markus Spiwoks. He brings both practical experience from his previous work in professional share analysis and an academic perspective on financial markets and forecasting models. Together with presenter Prof. Dr Heinz-Dieter Quack, he discusses why share price forecasts so often miss the mark and where the limits of human and algorithmic predictions lie.
Between expert knowledge and algorithms
The discussion centres on the question of why even complex share price models cannot provide reliable predictions about future price movements. It also examines the limits of human expertise and the role of prevailing economic theories.
Particularly fascinating is the comparison between human experts and algorithms: why do people often prefer to trust the judgement of an expert – even when an algorithm demonstrably delivers better results?
Listen to the new podcast episode now
The episode ‘The stock market doesn’t know the future: Why share prices cannot be predicted’ is now available on all major podcast platforms – including Spotify, Apple Podcasts and other providers.
https://linktr.ee/einfachforschung (external link, opens in a new window)
‘Einfach Forschung’ is the podcast from Ostfalia University of Applied Sciences. Every two weeks, researchers and experts from academia and industry discuss current social, technological and scientific developments. Presented by Prof. Dr Heinz-Dieter Quack, the podcast provides accessible and practical insights into topics such as digitalisation, mobility, sustainability, the economy and applied research.
