Episode 18 of the videocast deals with the following questions: Is the disruption caused by artificial intelligence a radical change or the landfall of a superstorm? And how do we shape a society that is no longer primarily linked to gainful employment?
Model economists are trying to calculate the consequences of AI using growth models and historical data. Looking back, it quickly becomes clear that technological progress has never weakened the demand for human labour in the long term - on the contrary. But this time, unemployment could rise significantly. The reason: the tremendous speed of AI disruption is leading to a structural break in the data set. Previous industrial revolutions took decades. Experts estimate: AI has a 300 times broader impact, develops 10 times faster - that's 3,000 times the impact overall. And it covers everything: industries, sectors, personal and social relationships.
AI can devalue many cognitive activities of the middle classes - middle and back-office jobs could become a "surplus factor". The end result is a vision of a GDP that is created almost entirely without human input. This puts pressure on a society that strongly links income, social security and recognition to gainful employment.
Keynes believed that people would make good use of the fruits of productivity progress as "leisure". But he overestimated the cultural ability of future generations to enjoy fulfilling leisure time. To date, societies have not translated productivity progress into shorter working hours, but into more consumption, more status competition and higher expectations. The technical possibility of leisure time is not the same as the cultural ability for leisure. And that is our problem: many people today would not know what to do with their leisure time if they lacked the financial means.
The key economic question is therefore: how do we keep overall economic demand, purchasing power and social participation stable if part of human labour is replaced by disruptive AI? The debate about basic income is not there to encourage people to be idle - but because even (partly libertarian) tech bros are recognising this: Even a GDP largely created by AI needs solvent customers.
This is exactly what the current Videocast episode is about.